CHOCOLATE SECURITY OR CHOCOLATE LUXURY:
Conditional on Climate Security
October 28, 2025
We have taken for granted the fact that the passion for chocolate—enjoyed by so many people around the world—can be easily satisfied. Simply said,
we have been living in ‘chocolate security.’ But,
what will happen
in the next 20‑40 years? Will this passion become a luxury?
As is well known, the main ingredient of chocolate comes from cacao trees. Just as any other plants, cacao must be cultivated in a specific type of climate and soil that sustains its existence, and supports its growth.
In the current changing climate of the Earth, however, cacao production is becoming more challenging; its survival even questionable in the next few decades if the change in climate and soil continues at the current rate.
The cacao tree can grow only within 20° north or south of the Equator—and, typically grown within the closest 10° band. The soil of the cacao‑growing regions are already changing. Aridity (the quality of soil being very dry, with very low moisture levels or precipitation from the air) is increasing. Just in the past 30 years, drylands of the global land of the Earth has increased by 1.7 million square miles (4.3 million square km) (about half the size of Australia).
So, how does this factor into our chocoholic habit, and what can be done about it?
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THE ESSENCE
THE DETAILS
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The decline in food‑producing soil health—and its death—happen the way as Ernest Hemingway described bankruptcy in his 1926 novel, The Sun Also Rises: It happens “gradually, and then suddenly.”
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the nitty‑gritty
EXPAND ALL COLLAPSE ALL
HOW THE CACAO TREE LIVES—AND HOW IT CAN DIE OUT
  • THE MAIN INGREDIENT OF CHOCOLATE COMES FROM THE CACAO TREE
    • Grows mostly in Northeastern Brazil, West Africa (70% of the world’s cacao), Southeast Asia
    • Thrives in humid climates with uniform temperatures, abundant rain, protection from wind, and nitrogen‑rich soil
    • Higher temperatures of the air squeeze more water out of soil and plants ⟹ shifting moisture levels ⟶ Aridity* of the soil ensues ( = extremely dry, little moisture) ⟶ Less suitable soil for growing cacao trees
    • Aridity is largely the result of human‑driven factors ⟸
      greenhouse gas emissions + soil‑unfriendly land use practices + degradation of critical natural resources
      (such as biodiversity, and other factors)
      • Greenhouse gas emissions:
        From fossil fuels and deforestation ⟹ increase in global air temperature ⟹ moisture evaporates at a faster rate ⟹ reduces soil and plant moisture ⟹ exacerbates water scarcity ⟶ drier soil absorbs less heat ⟹ leaves the atmosphere warmer ⟹ intensifies arid conditions
      • Soil‑unfriendly land use practices:
        Overgrazing, deforestation ⟹ strips the soil of its protective vegetation cover, disrupts local water cycles ⟹ exposes the soil to degradation, the soil becomes vulnerable to erosion
      • Degradation of critical natural resources:
        Takes away vital soil nutrients (i.e. microbes, etc.) that are essential to growing plants
    • The vicious cycle:
      Human activities ⟶ Dryer and degraded soil⟶ The dryer the soil, the more its ability to retain water diminishes ⟶ Soil more susceptible to further drying out ⟶ The drylands mass of the Earth expands⟶ Undermines ecosystems, food production, food security, living conditions
    • By 2050, rising temperatures will push the suitable cacao cultivation areas uphill (to higher, cooler altitudes): 2‑4 times higher than the current cacao growing altitudes. The uphill move could often warrant destroying forests at those higher altitudes.
    • Currently, more than 2.5 billion people live in drylands of the Earth. By 2100, this number could nearly double. (If you have a newborn child today, chances are that s/he will live to the time when conditions will be dire even in the West, if sufficient actions are not taken beforehand.)
  • ARIDITY IS NOT INEVITABLE, AND ITS PROGRESSION CAN BE CURBED
    • Restoring ecosystems, improving soil health, using sustainable farming methods ⟹ Restores degraded land
    • Communities developing water efficiency: rainwater harvesting, advanced irrigation systems, investing in renewable energy
      • ⟶ next
      • ⟵ back
      • ⟹ consequently
      • ⟸ as said before
    EXPAND ALL COLLAPSE ALL
WHAT CAN YOU DO ABOUT IT?
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REDUCE YOUR USE OF UNNECESSARY PAPER PRODUCTS
For paper grocery bags, napkins, pastry boxes, shipping boxes, and other paper products to exist, trees (and whole forests) are cut down, reducing their ability to keep the air clean—which we must breathe even just to stay alive.

Furthermore, using the cut‑down trees to manufacture then ship (across the ocean and the world) the paper products for our use generates enormous amounts of carbon‑dioxide, and other harmful gases.

So, by reducing your use of paper products, you not only save trees, but also reduce the generation of greenhouses gases. In other words, you take part in reducing climate change.
Plastic does not degenerate for 20‑600 years—it only degrades into smaller pieces, harming nature, contaminating our food, even our bodies. Plastic has been found in human livers, kidneys, and placentas.

Some alternatives: Buy high‑quality and long‑lasting plastic products, use reusable shopping bags, if you must buy disposabe ones than recycle them, or opt for products and packaging made from other types of materials.
CHANGE YOUR PLASTIC HABITS
REDUCE YOUR FOOD WASTE
Wasted food rots, and generates methane (CH4) during the rotting process. Because methane is a greenhouse gas, it contributes to climate change. In fact, it’s the second largest contributor, and much more powerful in its harmful effect than carbon‑dioxide … still, a swift way to lower the growth of climate change is reducing methane generation. And, reducing household food waste is a notable step toward mitigating climate change.
Seemingly small wasting habits add up—on an individual‑, national‑, and global level. Frequently buying new items (e.g. electronic devices, clothing, any consumer goods) when the existing ones are still in mint condition exacerbates the harm. Cutting back on waste on an individual‑ and household level makes significant positive difference not only because it reduces waste, but also because it compels manufacturers to produce and pollute less.
BE AWARE OF YOUR WASTING HABITS … AND REDUCE THEM
Overall:
BE MINDFUL OF WASTE …
HELP REDUCE CLIMATE CHANGE …
HELP SAVE ‘CHOCOLATE SECURITY’…
so it doesn’t become a luxury
Individual and household actions add up … in both directions: the harm they create, or the harm they reduce. Either way, they affect us all.
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